Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.113071 2.468319 2.862542 3.332129 3.875965 4.485707 5.220978
2025-12-28 1.634665 2.130376 2.740140 3.543846 4.573892 5.848326 7.543662
2026-01-04 1.275831 1.820039 2.548629 3.591908 5.043846 6.989147 9.789558
2026-01-11 1.037933 1.598609 2.404934 3.642881 5.488771 8.131416 12.193269
2026-01-18 0.858414 1.414000 2.264569 3.652186 5.848760 9.178689 14.593719
2026-01-25 0.717304 1.255221 2.126293 3.626697 6.131848 10.127557 16.957781
2026-02-01 0.574787 1.064257 1.899416 3.412399 6.066276 10.502297 18.441397
2026-02-08 0.478668 0.933738 1.748520 3.294641 6.131985 11.082027 20.319397
2026-02-15 0.414149 0.847994 1.660247 3.269101 6.347155 11.932604 22.763345
2026-02-22 0.379364 0.812293 1.656856 3.396929 6.855542 13.361268 26.425684
2026-03-01 0.332644 0.744033 1.579371 3.367623 7.055976 14.239268 29.159793
2026-03-08 0.290550 0.677798 1.494998 3.309918 7.188251 14.996530 31.745898
2026-03-15 0.256720 0.625321 1.434499 3.300465 7.434653 16.044198 35.126627
2026-03-22 0.247633 0.627961 1.494100 3.562338 8.300587 18.480975 41.736093
2026-03-29 0.225161 0.594744 1.468253 3.628863 8.748373 20.098417 46.822034
2026-04-05 0.204905 0.563101 1.440709 3.686680 9.184331 21.746445 52.196982
2026-04-12 0.184559 0.527271 1.397038 3.698268 9.512579 23.194362 57.309420
2026-04-19 0.164955 0.489573 1.342334 3.673206 9.747380 24.455432 62.150899
2026-04-26 0.139289 0.429931 1.220970 3.456482 9.469367 24.460411 63.972082
2026-05-03 0.121295 0.388681 1.141422 3.337328 9.423802 25.024122 67.245720
2026-05-10 0.109128 0.362367 1.098495 3.311495 9.622001 26.224384 72.293789
2026-05-17 0.103600 0.355516 1.109768 3.440936 10.264197 28.650867 80.852100
2026-05-24 0.093545 0.332145 1.068708 3.411267 10.454864 29.909075 86.455256